Future burden of obesity-related conditions likely
to be substantial, warn researchers
A large, community-based study – considered the
first study to assess the long-term risk of developing
overweight and obesity in adults – found that
over 30 years, nine out of 10 men and seven out of
10 women were overweight or became overweight. In
addition, more than one in three were obese or became
obese. The study was supported by the National Heart,
Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), one of the National
Institutes of Health (NIH).
Researchers analyzed the short-term and long-term chances
of developing overweight and obesity among more than
4,000 white adults enrolled in the offspring cohort
of NHLBI's landmark Framingham Heart Study, an ongoing
longitudinal study in Framingham, Massachusetts. Participants
ages 30 to 59 were followed for 30 years, from 1971
to 2001. The results appear in the October 4, 2005,
issue of the Annals of Internal Medicine.
“National surveys and other studies have told
us that the United States has a major weight problem,
but this study suggests that we could have an even
more serious degree of overweight and obesity over
the next few decades,” said NHLBI Director Elizabeth
G. Nabel, M.D., who also co-chairs the NIH Obesity
Research Task Force. “In addition, these results
may underestimate the risk for some ethnic groups.”
Framingham participants were white, and other studies
have shown, for example, that Hispanic and black individuals,
especially women, have a greater prevalence of excess
weight compared to their white counterparts.
According to the National Center for Health Statistics,
part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
65 percent of U.S. adults aged 20 years and older
are either overweight or obese, and approximately
30 percent of adults are obese. These estimates are
from the 1999-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination
Survey, a population-based survey.
Framingham researchers assessed the participants’
body mass index (BMI) – a standard measure of
weight relative to height, which is an indicator of
total body fat. A BMI of 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m2 is considered
a normal, or healthy, weight for adults. Overweight
is a BMI of 25 to 29.9 kg/m2, and obesity is a BMI
of 30 kg/m2 or higher.